With the Blue Jays and Yankees in a dead heat for the AL East crown—albeit with Toronto holding the tiebreaker—one will win a division title and the other will get a wild card spot. Chances are, they’ll likely be joined by another division peer in the Red Sox, who have a two-game cushion on the Tigers and a three-game edge on the Astros, plus the tiebreaker over Houston.

Assuming Boston gets in—it’s hosting Detroit for a three-game series starting Friday—that leaves the Tigers and Astros jostling for the final spot. Detroit has a one-game lead and the tiebreaker edge, but Houston still has a pulse.

Frankly, though, this all comes down to which squad snaps out of its funk first.

The Astros have lost five in a row, and yet they’re still the “hotter” team in this hunt, as the Tigers have now dropped eight in a row. This isn’t some new development, either, as Detroit has gone a woeful 5-15 in the month of September, which is how it went from seeming locking up the AL Central to now scrambling to grab the AL’s final playoff spot. Houston, which is 9-12 in September, closes out the regular season with a road game against the Athletics on Thursday and then a three-game road series against the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend.