Donald Trump is sensible and he is right. Basking in glory after his Gaza ceasefire, he was on Friday evening flying to Florida with his entourage of reporters. The drums of war were beating across Europe and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had pleaded with him for Tomahawk missiles. What was his reply?
Trump was clearly fed up. He had told Zelenskyy: go make a deal. He had said, “They should stop the war immediately. You go go by the battle line wherever it is … and both sides should go home. Go to their families, stop the killing and that should be it.” Matter closed. Tomahawks would merely mean escalation and more killing. Get a deal.
Given that just last month, Trump had suggested Ukraine could recover all its territory occupied by Russia, his capriciousness must be taken into account. Anything can mean nothing. But modern diplomacy is rarely about ideology or consistency. It is about egos and show. It means to seize each moment as it comes and see what happens.
Trump clearly seized the right moment to get Benjamin Netanyahu to stop killing Palestinians. In doing so he opened a door to peace that was shut. Even those suffering Trump derangement syndrome had to approve. Motive is not the issue if the outcome is right.
The handling of Ukraine by the west has lost its way in the dusty corridors of Nato, the EU and the UN. Their leaders have long retreated into wishing Zelenskyy well. They give him enough help to keep fighting but not winning. They feel good telling the world how awful Vladimir Putin is, and telling Zelenskyy to hang tough.
The hawks will now reply that a ceasefire along the existing frontline will “solve” nothing. It will merely repeat the 2015 ceasefire and concede more territory to Russia. It would reward an outrage against international law and fail thousands of Ukrainians who have died for their country, not to mention millions of westerners who have paid dearly in their energy bills. A shattered Ukraine is more honourable than a dishonourable peace. What was wrong anyway with a few Tomahawks raining down on Moscow?
Both Gaza and Ukraine were territorial conflicts from which the west could theoretically have stayed aloof. History will judge whether the nature and the level of involvement has really served the cause of resolution or lasting peace. In the case of Ukraine, the US and Nato at least reacted with realism and caution. Joe Biden laid down firm limits on military assistance to minimise the danger of escalation. Trump has wisely stuck to that line.
Now he says he wants to bring the conflict to an end. We assume that in his conversation with Putin last week he agreed not to give Zelenskyy Tomahawks. We wait to see what Putin will agree in return, presumably so Trump can have another Gaza-style glory fest. If that is the price of an end to this war, it would be cheap. But Putin is not Netanyahu and Trump lacks leverage over him. He is taking a risk.
The US’s record in sorting out the world’s woes has been dismal over the past three decades. Trump has long opposed overseas entanglements and protests they are not America’s job. He is reluctant to send troops into harm’s way and never claims for the US a divine mission to save the world for freedom. But if he wants another global cheer he will have to hold Putin’s feet to the fire. That this will be tough is not an argument against trying.
The new realism dictates that in situations like these we do not stand on ceremony and spout abstract nouns. We deal with the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. Trump now has to fashion a guarantee of security along Ukraine’s current frontline with Russia that can satisfy both Putin and Zelenskyy. He has to do the same in Gaza to satisfy Israel and Palestine. Since he refuses to commit American troops to either venture, his powers of persuasion will have to be superhuman if his reputation is to be secured.
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Trump has got this far without using the diplomatic apparatus of his Nato or other allies. He is right that allies have so far failed to deliver. He has operated through a ramshackle collection of courtiers eager to do his bidding and with nothing to lose. Their sole virtue so far has been to make progress.
Trump’s clear intention is to bring two bitter wars to an end through personal charisma. He relies on his impact on other equally egotistic leaders standing in his way. Ukraine is at stalemate. Trump simply pleads for a stop to the fighting, a stop to the killing and a return of soldiers to their homes and families. We can call it vanity and egotism, but so what? It is a plea for peace from the world’s most powerful leader. We should wish Trump well in his effort, and congratulate him if he succeeds.
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