Nowhere in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s protocol does it refer to anything about a team’s history and tradition — or lack thereof. It’s not supposed to care that Vanderbilt hasn’t been 7-1 in 84 years.
The 12 people in that room will absolutely care, though, that Vanderbilt is 7-1 now — with back-to-back wins against ranked SEC opponents LSU and Missouri. Vanderbilt — the story of the season — is on the brink of making its first appearance in any CFP ranking during the playoff era.
And not only will the Commodores crack the committee’s top 25, but they also will have a legitimate chance to make their debut in the coveted top 12 when the first ranking is released Nov. 4. If the playoff were today, they would already be in. A lot can — and will — change with one Saturday remaining before the first ranking is revealed, but here is a snapshot of what it might look like through Week 9 results.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes remain safe at the top after a bye week, as Indiana’s home win against a UCLA team that is now 3-5 wouldn’t be enough to sway the committee into flipping them. Ohio State entered Week 9 ranked No. 1 in the country in total efficiency, No. 1 in defensive efficiency, and No. 6 in offensive efficiency. The Buckeyes also have three Big Ten road wins to Indiana’s two, and are No. 1 in ESPN’s Game Control metric with a slight edge over No. 2 Indiana. Ohio State’s win at Washington would also be strongly valued by the committee, as the Huskies improved to 6-2 on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: Indiana keeps making statements – even against unranked teams like UCLA. The Hoosiers’ win at Oregon is better than Ohio State’s win at Texas, even though the Longhorns managed an epic overtime comeback on Saturday at Mississippi State. The selection committee also compares common opponents, and while both Ohio State and Indiana beat Illinois with ease, the Hoosiers did it in historic fashion, handing coach Bret Bielema the worst loss of his career.
Need to know: Ohio State’s spot at the top isn’t a guarantee as the season progresses. If Alabama runs the table and wins the SEC, the selection committee would at least consider the Tide for the No. 1 spot. Alabama entered Saturday with the No. 2 toughest schedule in the country — Ohio State was No. 33. The question would be if enough committee members could forgive the season-opening loss to Florida State, which has looked worse every week. So while this pecking order has been fairly stable with the Big Ten at the top, the possibility of shuffling remains — and that includes a promotion for the Hoosiers, too, if they finish as undefeated Big Ten champs.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers asserted themselves against a recharged UCLA team, leaving no doubt they were better in another lopsided win. Indiana still owns the best win in the country, Oct. 11 at Oregon, and the historic 63-10 win against Illinois is another separation point between the Hoosiers and other contenders. They don’t have a nonconference win, though, that stacks up against Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas.
Why they could be higher: Indiana’s sheer domination of UCLA was yet another statement of the Hoosiers’ relentless consistency. They don’t play down to their opponents and have beaten everyone but Iowa by double digits. The 30-20 win at Oregon is better than Ohio State’s home win against the Longhorns on the overall résumé, and IU entered Saturday ranked No. 2 in the country in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — just ahead of Ohio State.
Need to know: The Hoosiers have passed their most difficult tests of the season. Their task now is to avoid what would be a shocking November upset. None of their remaining opponents are ranked and only Maryland (4-3) is above .500. If the Hoosiers run the table and play for the Big Ten championship, they should be a CFP lock. Even if they lose the title game, they should be in contention for a top-four finish and first-round bye.
Toughest remaining game: If Indiana is a playoff team, it shouldn’t lose in November. Three of IU’s last four games are on the road, but Maryland has lost three straight, Penn State has lost four straight, and Purdue has lost six in a row. The Hoosiers’ last home game is Nov. 15 against a struggling Wisconsin team. Indiana has at least a 70% chance to win each remaining game.
Why they could be here: The Tide avoided an upset on the road against a scrappy South Carolina team, preserving its position as what should be the committee’s top one-loss team. Alabama hasn’t lost since its season-opener at Florida State, and has four wins against ranked opponents. The Tide entered Saturday ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, No. 2 in strength of schedule, and in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The win against Georgia will keep the Tide above the Bulldogs as long as their records remain the same because of the committee’s tiebreaker protocol.
Why they could be lower: The loss to Florida State happened, and the Noles are now 3-4. Meanwhile Texas A&M is still undefeated after its convincing road win at LSU, further enhancing its résumé with a second road win against a ranked opponent.
Need to know: Alabama has a much-needed bye week and won’t play again before the selection committee releases its first ranking on Nov. 4. This eight-game résumé is what the group will use to determine where Alabama starts.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 13 vs. Oklahoma. The Tide should be favored to win at home, but it’s a week after hosting LSU. Alabama has at least a 72% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics. Alabama and Georgia have the best chances in the conference to reach the SEC title game.
Why they could be here: With the win at LSU on Saturday, the Aggies have compiled one of the most impressive résumés in the country, further cementing their place in the top four. Texas A&M now has two road wins against ranked opponents, including the Sept. 13 nonconference win at Notre Dame. It was also their second straight SEC road win after escaping Arkansas. The Aggies are No. 1 in the country in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, and entered Week 9 ranked No. 8 in Game Control. Even with one loss, though, Alabama has four wins against ranked opponents. Texas A&M could be held back by the committee because LSU and Notre Dame are the only opponents they have defeated with winning records. Everyone else is a combined 20-26.
Why they could be higher: The Aggies are undefeated and some committee members would have a hard time forgetting Alabama’s loss to Florida State.
Need to know: The Aggies and Tide don’t play each other during the regular season, but could settle the debate in the SEC championship game. Texas A&M also doesn’t play Georgia during the regular season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. The Longhorns’ playoff hopes could be on the line, and finishing the season on the road against a rival is never easy.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs had a bye week, but their Oct. 18 win against Ole Miss looks even better today after the Rebels won at Oklahoma. Georgia’s head-to-head win against Ole Miss will keep them above the Rebels as long as their records are comparable because of the tiebreaker in the committee’s protocol. A three-point loss to Alabama will also keep them below the Tide for the same reason. The overtime road win against what should be a CFP Top 25 Tennessee team adds to their résumé and helps separate Georgia from other one-loss contenders.
Why they could be lower: Lopsided wins against Marshall and Austin Peay aren’t going to impress anyone in the committee meeting room. Kentucky and Auburn have at least four losses each. The Bulldogs entered their bye week No. 6 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric.
Need to know: Rival Georgia Tech has the best chance of any team to reach the ACC championship game, which means Georgia has an opportunity to possibly enhance its résumé with a win against the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are currently undefeated and pushed the Bulldogs to eight overtimes last year. This year’s game will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Why they could be here: The Rebels earned their first road win against a ranked SEC opponent on Saturday at Oklahoma, adding to an already impressive résumé that includes wins against Tulane and LSU. The eight-point loss at Georgia on Oct. 18 is the only blemish, and it’s one of the best ways to lose in the eyes of the committee — on the road to a ranked opponent in a close game. That head-to-head result, though, will keep Ole Miss behind Georgia as long as their records remain the same.
Why they could be lower: The Rebels entered Week 9 ranked No. 71 in defensive efficiency, well below most other contenders here. Typically, top playoff teams rank in the top 10-15 in both offense and defense. Ole Miss had allowed 22 points per game through the first seven games, and was No. 108 in the country with 10 sacks. They’re also one of the most penalized teams in the nation, giving up 69 penalty yards per game through the first seven games.
Need to know: In this projection, Ole Miss would earn the No. 6 seed, which would mean a first-round home game as the higher seed. The Rebels may need help to get into the SEC championship game because of the loss to Georgia, but shouldn’t lose again. Ole Miss likely won’t face another ranked opponent this season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl is always interesting, but a loss to the Bulldogs could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game — or getting bumped out of the bracket entirely.
Why they could be here: The Canes got off to a slow start at home against Stanford, but eventually pulled away to avoid what would have been a devastating loss to a sub-.500 team. The Hurricanes rebounded from their Oct. 17 loss to Louisville, and still have a decent résumé, but it’s lost some of its luster. The win against South Florida remains respectable, but the Bulls chances of winning the American took a hit on Saturday with their loss to Memphis. Florida has already fired coach Billy Napier, and Florida State has lost four straight. Miami’s season-opening win against Notre Dame, though, is still one of the best nonconference wins in the country and continues to help separate the Canes from other contenders with a weaker schedule. It also helped Miami that Louisville beat Boston College and should be a one-loss CFP Top 25 team, softening the blow of that loss a little. And Miami is still performing well, ranking in the top 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Why they could be lower: Some selection committee members could argue that Vanderbilt has a better résumé than both Oregon and Miami as far as one-loss teams. Even before the Commodores earned their second win against a ranked opponent, they were No. 11, sandwiched between No. 10 Oregon and No. 12 Miami in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric.
Need to know: The Canes will leave their home state for the first time all season when they travel to SMU on Saturday.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Pitt. The Panthers have won four straight games, including a stunning 53-34 win against NC State on Saturday.
Why they could be here: The 10-point home loss to Indiana is the only blemish, and the committee would consider that a decent loss. They would also still look somewhat favorable upon the double overtime win at Penn State, considering the Nittany Lions still had their head coach and it was an unforgiving environment and crowd. It certainly isn’t a statement win, but nobody in the room is going to penalize Oregon for it, either. The Ducks entered Week 9 ranked No. 10 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric.
Why they could be lower: The Ducks came out flat against a struggling Wisconsin team, and don’t have a lot on their résumé to compare with other one-loss teams. Vanderbilt has two better wins, and undefeated BYU can argue better wins against Utah and Iowa State. The committee would point out an FCS win against Montana State, and Oklahoma State and Oregon State are a combined 2-14. Overall, Oregon entered Saturday with the No. 31 strength of schedule — just slightly ahead of No. 34 Vanderbilt.
Need to know: Oregon has more chances to impress the selection committee in November, with games against Iowa, USC and at Washington looming — all teams with winning records and potentially ranked in the CFP Top 25. The committee doesn’t project ahead, though, and Oregon has a bye week heading into the first ranking. Don’t be surprised if the Ducks are lower than some might expect the defending Big Ten champions to be when the first ranking is revealed on Nov. 4. Last year’s results don’t impact the committee’s decisions this year, but schedules do. Oregon has a bye before the first ranking is revealed, and not a lot on its résumé to impress the group. Eye test will play a role.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Washington. The 6-2 Huskies have only lost to Ohio State and on the road against Michigan.
Why they could be here: The committee would have a difficult decision, putting the one-loss Commodores ahead of two undefeated teams, but could justify it because Vanderbilt’s two best wins are better than BYU’s wins against Utah and Iowa State — and better than any of Georgia Tech’s wins. The lone loss was to Alabama, which should be the committee’s top one-loss team. The Commodores have now won back-to-back games against ranked SEC opponents. They also earned a convincing 31-7 win at South Carolina, which just pushed Alabama to the brink. Vanderbilt would be compared with one-loss Texas Tech, and the Commodores have better wins than the Red Raiders, and a better loss, as Texas Tech lost to Arizona State.
Why they could be lower: The committee could reward the undefeated Big 12 and ACC teams simply because they haven’t lost yet.
Need to know: This position could change quickly, as Vandy is at Texas on Saturday, it’s last chance to make a first impression on the selection committee before its first ranking. Vandy’s last two games against ranked SEC opponents are both on the road; Saturday at Texas and in the regular-season finale on Nov. 29 at Tennessee.
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at Texas. The Longhorns are desperately trying to keep their playoff hopes alive by avoiding a third loss, and ESPN Analytics gives them at least a 70% chance to win.
Why they could be here: BYU entered Week 9 ranked No. 60 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric, which would be a significant drawback in the committee meeting room — but it’s ahead of Georgia Tech in both schedule strength and Strength of Record, where BYU was No. 5 on Saturday. BYU rallied at Iowa State to earn its fourth road win of the season and remains the only undefeated team left in the Big 12. Its best wins, though, are against Utah and Iowa State, which are both over .500 but borderline CFP Top 25 teams.
Why they could be lower: The committee would discuss an FCS win against Portland State, and a win against a sub-.500 team in West Virginia. BYU also needed double overtime to win at unranked, three-loss Arizona on Oct. 11.
Need to know: This was BYU’s last chance to impress the selection committee before the first ranking is revealed on Nov. 4 because they have a bye week on Saturday. The committee will have an undefeated Big 12 team to consider for its first of six rankings.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rebounded from their loss at Arizona State with a convincing win against a beleaguered Oklahoma State team on Saturday. BYU and Texas Tech have the highest chances to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics, followed by Cincinnati. The Cougars have to play both opponents on the road during the regular season, but have a bye week to prepare for the Nov. 8 game at Texas Tech.
Why they could be here: Undefeated Georgia Tech entered this week ranked No. 72 in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric, which will probably keep the Jackets lower in the committee’s top 12. Their best nonconference win is at Colorado, and the committee would note an FCS win against Gardner-Webb. Even without three injured starters, though, Georgia Tech pulled away to beat Syracuse soundly on Saturday — and the committee considers injuries to key players. The Jackets needed a convincing win after struggling multiple times to get separation against unranked opponents.
Why they could be higher: The Yellow Jackets would likely be behind BYU because the Cougars have better wins, but they could both be above Vanderbilt if more committee members keep the Commodores lower because of their loss to Alabama.
Need to know: Without any CFP Top 25 wins on their résumé, style points could come in handy in November in case Georgia Tech loses to rival Georgia and doesn’t win the ACC. A win against Georgia, though, would impress the committee any way it happened. That would make it much easier for the group to include Georgia Tech as an at-large team if the Jackets’ lone loss is to the ACC champion.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Georgia. The Yellow Jackets took their rival to eight overtimes last year before losing, 44-42, in Athens.
Why they could be here: The Irish remain on the bubble following their bye week, but the Oct. 18 home win against USC catapulted them back into the conversation. It was their first win against a ranked opponent, and the fifth straight win since an 0-2 start. Notre Dame was No. 9 overall in ESPN’s Strength of Schedule metric entering Saturday, but some committee members will have trouble voting the Irish much higher because of the two losses — even though they were by a combined four points to two ranked opponents. The victory against 6-2 Boise State was one of Notre Dame’s best wins, and that was part of a string of three games in which the Irish defense held its opponents to 13 points or fewer.
Why they could be lower: With the losses to Miami and Texas A&M, Notre Dame checked in at No. 18 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric entering Saturday. It didn’t help that Miami lost to Louisville.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Notre Dame would be bumped out to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which is guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. Right now that team — Memphis as the projected American champion — would be ranked outside the top 12. As an independent, Notre Dame can’t lock up a spot in the playoff as one of the five conference champions, so its only path is through an at-large bid.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. Notre Dame is projected to win each of its remaining games, but this one is on the road against an ACC team above .500. The Irish entered Week 9 with the best chance in the country to win out (68.4%).
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 BYU/No. 7 Miami winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Vanderbilt/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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