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The economists tried to warn us. From the beginning, trade policy experts cautioned that tariffs would raise consumer prices and wouldn’t create the American manufacturing renaissance that the Trump administration promised. One thing that I wrote about tariffs back in February keeps popping in my head: When I asked economists and policy folks what high tariffs would actually look like, they were hesitant to be prescriptive. That’s because each industry operates in different ways, and every commodity we have access to arrives to us having touched so many hands. It’s not that one day everything will jump in price, or in equal measure — instead, the consumer pain could be drawn out, with price increases or supply disruptions popping up without much warning.

Perhaps the most immediately disruptive tariff policy came in September, when the de minimis rule was suspended for all countries shipping small packages to the US. Overnight, the change affected all parcels valued under $800 that previously entered the US tariff-free. Thanks to the de minimis rule, I was a regular shopper on Japanese eBay for years; on Etsy, I bought handmade jewelry from India and antique treasures from the UK. I haven’t purchased anything that ships from abroad since this summer, wary of surprise tariff bills. If you have any kind of hobby that even partially depends on physical goods coming from abroad — photography, crafting, K-beauty, you name it — you’ve probably already gotten into a new habit before you buy anything online: Check to see if something is even available to be shipped to you in the first place. Then, try to make sense of what, if anything, you’ll owe in additional fees.

It will probably come as no surprise: Consumers have paid up to 55 percent of the tariffs imposed by Trump, according to a Goldman Sachs report released in mid-October. And that number could go higher still: The New York Times reported that even some companies that initially absorbed costs instead of passing them on to consumers are now looking for ways to boost profits that tariffs ate into.

Another thing that economists told me months ago that’s come to bear: It’s not just imports that will get more expensive. By now many people understand that even products made in the US often use smaller components made somewhere else, therefore making US businesses’ costs jump. Data from Harvard’s Pricing Lab shows that it’s not just imported goods that have risen in price — domestic items have gotten more expensive, too. Some of that could be because of imported materials or components. But in industries where consumers have more US-made alternatives to imports, domestic manufacturers can also hike their own prices in response to imports that are now more expensive. They raise prices because they can.

Other companies have said outright that Trump’s tariff policies are triggering changes to their business. The sporting and outdoor goods company Orvis is planning to close half its stores by 2026 and slim down its product offerings due to the “unprecedented tariff landscape.” Kids clothing store Carter’s similarly said that tariffs were eating into its profit margins and that it would close 150 stores and cut 300 jobs.

The new tariffs — especially those resulting from the end of the de minimis rule — create new headaches for consumers. I’ve gotten in the habit of triple-checking where products are shipping from, and if I’m not certain, I message the seller and confirm. Some shoppers’ packages are stuck in customs and in transit, and UPS told NBC News that it was “disposing of” some shipments amid the backlog.

Producers have also come up with… creative ways to blunt the impact of the tariffs. For consumers, Halloween candy this year might have been smaller thanks to shrinkflation, but also less chocolate-y as manufacturers deal with rising prices of cocoa. Tariffs are far from the only reason that treats are more expensive, but CNN notes that candy makers are coming up with some truly cursed new specialty flavors that aren’t as chocolate-forward, like “cinnamon-toast-flavored Kit Kats.” No, thank you.

The holidays will be another test of the resiliency of our supply chains and Trump’s commitment to his wildly unpopular trade policies. Around 90 percent of fake Christmas trees are made in China, for example, and some importers have warned that there could be shortages of decorations this year (the shortages are also already being used to encourage shoppers to “stock up” and “get ahead of the curve,” so take that as you will).

Trump’s tariffs are also being challenged in court, and the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments in the first week of November. Instead of going through Congress, Trump imposed tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

It’s hard not to feel like Trump’s tariffs are a continuous own-goal, over and over again — especially because after coming down hard on certain countries and commodities, the Trump administration regularly cuts side deals to decrease the taxes. You know how retailers will sometimes raise prices before a sale so the markdowns make shoppers think they’re getting a deal? That’s what this feels like. Most recently, Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping reached a “deal” where Trump agreed to “trim” tariffs on China by “10 percent” (the tax is still 47 percent). In exchange, China said it would work to stop fentanyl from coming into the US from China, pause restrictions on the export of rare-earth minerals essential to auto and tech industries, and buy many million metric tons of US soybeans over the next several years (recall that Trump triggered a soybean crisis during his last presidency, too).

I say “deal,” and “trim,” and “10 percent” because these terms are far from settled. If the last several months are any indication, the framework of the agreement could be one clever commercial away from being blown up entirely. The public flattery of Trump — Apple’s gold plaque, the Korean crown, Japan serving US rice to Trump at lunch, YouTube throwing millions at Trump’s ballroom and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang bragging about his support — are shocking enough. The promises made behind closed doors in negotiating these deals are apparently fickle enough to change on a dime; the only certainty is the rest of us will feel it regardless.