The leaves are falling, the hot takes are flowing, the clocks are turning back — and it is once again time for a meeting between two of the NFL’s best.

Welcome to Round 10 of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen, or more accurately, the Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-2) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).

Both teams have finished atop their respective divisions for the past five seasons and have met in each regular season since 2020 — plus four postseason games in that span. After Sunday, the 10 matchups will mark the most between starting quarterbacks age 30 or younger from different divisions (three more than any other matchup). It is also tied for the most matchups over a six-season span between two teams from different divisions (1972-77, Steelers-Raiders).

Kansas City has had the advantage in the playoffs, winners of all four postseason matchups. But the Bills have won four of five regular-season meetings, including the past four in a row. The Bills’ defense has been the major difference. In the regular season, the Bills have allowed 20.8 points per game (while scoring 25.8). In the postseason, the Bills have allowed 34.8 points per game (while scoring 28.3).

There is potential for an 11th matchup this postseason, but both teams have real competition within their respective divisions and other AFC threats, including the 7-1 Indianapolis Colts.

Both teams have defensive lines with depth issues and MVP quarterbacks who have had to carry their offenses, at times. The Chiefs recently got back receiver Rashee Rice from suspension, but the Bills are still seeking a spark in the passing game.

This game is a stepping-stone for both teams in their quests for a Super Bowl title and could determine seeding later in the season. The Chiefs are looking to match the 1990s Bills as the only teams to reach four straight Super Bowls. The Bills haven’t reached the Super Bowl since 1993, the end of that run in the 90s, and are seeking a strong final season at their historic Highmark Stadium.

ESPN’s Chiefs reporter Nate Taylor and Bills reporter Alaina Getzenberg break down the matchup and where the two teams are in Week 9:

What is different about the Chiefs and Bills from last year?

Chiefs: Mahomes will have more passing options than he had a year ago. Receivers Rice and Hollywood Brown have helped the Chiefs’ offense become an explosive unit again, and even speedy receiver Xavier Worthy has shown improvement in his route running since his rookie season. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in each of their past five games, so this is a much better offense than a year ago.

Much of the attention for the Chiefs, winners in five of their past six games, has been on the offense. The Chiefs’ defense, however, appears to be more prepared. The Chiefs have surrendered just two touchdowns in the past 10 quarters, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo should have all of his projected starters available. The linemen around pass rusher Chris Jones — defensive ends George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu and Mike Danna — are performing better than at the beginning of the season, too.

One of the biggest themes for the Chiefs this season is Reid’s ultra-aggressiveness. With Mahomes on the field, the Chiefs have converted 14 of 16 fourth-down attempts (87.5%) — the highest success rate of teams that have had 10 or more attempts.

Bills: After a hot start to the season, the Bills lost two in a row before the team’s bye week. Injuries have piled up on defense, especially at defensive tackle, and continued adjustments will be needed.

The looming trade deadline marks an opportunity for the Bills, who have struggled with consistency in the downfield passing game. The struggles have played a part in Allen being sacked 14 times — the same number he had all of last season. He also has four interceptions, two shy of last season’s total.

Running back James Cook III has been an even bigger threat on the ground this year as the Bills seek a balanced offense, leading the league in rushing yards per game at 107.6. Unlike previous years, the Bills want the passing game to match the rushing attack, something coach Sean McDermott said was important this week.

There are some new faces along the team’s defensive line, including the offseason addition of Joey Bosa, who leads the league in pressure percentage (18.2%).

This year, the Bills and Chiefs have more competitors for the top seed in the AFC, increasing the importance of winning this game.

Speaking of those other AFC candidates …

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Both teams have competition in the division for the first time in several seasons. How will they perform?

Chiefs: Reid acknowledged before the season how much the Chiefs’ AFC West rivals improved. The Los Angeles Chargers proved that by beating the Chiefs in São Paulo, Brazil, in the season opener. The Denver Broncos lead the division and have a 6-2 record entering Sunday behind the NFL’s top defense and Bo Nix’s improved play in recent weeks.

The matchup against the Bills is the start of a critical stretch for the Chiefs, who still have four divisional games left. After their bye week, the Chiefs will face the Broncos and the red-hot Colts before their showcase game on Thanksgiving Day against the Dallas Cowboys. The Chiefs are hoping to capture their 10th consecutive AFC West crown, which would guarantee them at least one home playoff game. The Chiefs’ rematch against the Chargers, set for Dec. 14, will be an opportunity to illustrate how much their offense has improved since the opener.

With three losses already, the easiest way for the Chiefs to regain the division lead is to sweep the Broncos. Reid, Mahomes and the rest of the team will have plenty of motivation. Ten months ago, in the regular-season finale, the Broncos, needing a win to clinch the conference’s final playoff spot, beat Kansas City 38-0. One could argue the Chiefs, who had already clinched the top seed and rested their starters for the game, didn’t enjoy Broncos coach Sean Payton running up the score.

Bills: The New England Patriots are a real threat to the Bills’ quest for a sixth straight AFC East title. While the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are near the bottom of the conference, Buffalo is second in the division at 5-2 behind the 6-2 Patriots, who are on a five-game winning streak.

The Patriots have the tiebreaker against the Bills after winning the Week 5 meeting, which ended Buffalo’s 14-game home winning streak. The Bills came into the season 26-6 vs. the AFC East in the regular season since 2020.

Last season, the Bills became the seventh team since 1980 to clinch a division title with five games remaining in a season. That’s not looking likely this season.

The Bills could even the score with the Patriots in December, but for now, Buffalo needs to keep up with New England to have a chance at the division title.

Allen and Mahomes are two of the NFL’s top QBs, but do they have the supporting casts to win the Super Bowl or make another deep run?

Chiefs: The Chiefs appear ready for another run in January and February. The Chiefs are one of the healthiest teams at the midway point of the regular season, and that’s one of the biggest benefits for Mahomes. He has his full complement of pass catchers, including tight end Travis Kelce and receivers in Rice, Worthy, Brown and deep-threat Tyquan Thornton.

Perhaps the biggest reason the Chiefs are ready for a playoff run is that they’ve appeared to solve their biggest issue from last season: left tackle. The Chiefs reached the Super Bowl last season despite using four players — Kingsley Suamataia, Wanya Morris, D.J. Humphries and All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney — at the position. The instability impacted Mahomes, who was sacked a career-high six times in the Chiefs’ blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX despite not being blitzed in the game; Mahomes also had a career-worst average of just 245 passing yards per game last season. But this season, the Chiefs have gotten improved play from rookie left tackle Josh Simmons, their first-round pick, and Jaylon Moore, their biggest acquisition in free agency.

With better protection, Mahomes has scrambled more often because of want rather than need. Each of his three touchdown passes in Monday’s win over the Washington Commanders occurred with him having at least four seconds to throw.

“It’s huge when you’re getting the time to sit in the pocket and kind of go through your reads and make that stuff happen,” Mahomes said Wednesday. “It gives you confidence that you’re seeing the right stuff. If you have confidence, then you can go out there and throw it the way you want to throw it. I think that’s huge, and it all starts up front with the O-line.”

The main issue for the Chiefs’ defense is the inconsistency of the pass rush. Jones is still one of the league’s most dominant interior rushers, often commanding two linemen to block him at all times. The Chiefs could look to add another lineman before the trade deadline.

The Chiefs will enter Highmark Stadium with the league’s second-best defense, which has allowed just 16.4 points per game. One reason for the success is that Spagnuolo might have the league’s best trio of linebackers in Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal. The three linebackers have been effective in limiting the production of some standout running backs — including Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne Jr., Jahmyr Gibbs and rookie Ashton Jeanty. The biggest test for Spagnuolo’s linebackers will be Cook, who has been excellent this season.

Although the Chiefs don’t generate many turnovers, they tackle well in the open field.

“Each week, we are constantly trying to improve [and] get better at the fundamentals, the techniques, whatever it is,” said Danna, who recorded an interception and sack last week. “It’s about weeks of preparation. We take that very seriously, practicing with a purpose. There’s always room for improvement. The moment you feel like you’re good, you get complacent, and we don’t want to take our foot off the gas pedal. We don’t have [any] time or [any] room for that.”

Bills: A big question in Orchard Park is if the Bills will trade for a wide receiver before the deadline for a second straight year.

Second-year receiver Keon Coleman has not emerged the way the team had hoped. After a splashy start in Week 1 with eight receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown in the win vs. the Baltimore Ravens, Coleman has averaged 25.8 yards per game and scored just one touchdown. His lack of consistency is an issue.

“I just do my job, man, do my 1/11 and then everybody else do their 1/11, and when the pass game really is needed for us to really do what need to do, we’re going to capitalize,” Coleman said.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats heading into the Week 8 game vs. the Carolina Panthers, Allen had targeted a downfield open receiver (passes of 10-plus air yards with 3-plus yards of target separation) on a career-low 6.7% of his passes, the seventh-lowest rate in the NFL at the time. On throws of 20-plus air yards, Allen has nine completions (15th), 238 yards (23rd) and two interceptions.

The Bills’ offense has Cook, who has been electric this season, and was dynamic in Buffalo’s loss in the AFC Championship Game last season to the Chiefs. He is coming off a career-high 216-yard rushing performance. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir is also fifth in the league in yards after the catch (293).

On defense, the Bills have been decimated by injuries this season, with no position hit harder than defensive tackle. Ed Oliver is out indefinitely because of a torn left biceps, while DaQuan Jones (calf) will miss a third straight game.

In Sunday’s game vs. Kansas City, Buffalo needs rookie Deone Walker and veterans Jordan Phillips and Larry Ogunjobi to be impactful contributors.

The good news for the defense is that linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are trending toward their returns. It also wouldn’t be surprising if rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston takes on a bigger role in his second game because of the speed of the Chiefs’ wide receivers (Hairston ran a 4.28 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine).

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How have Mahomes and Allen played so far?

Chiefs: Mahomes is one of the leading MVP candidates because he has recorded a league-leading 17 passing touchdowns and committed just four interceptions — and two of those turnovers are after Kelce bobbled the ball. Unlike last year, Mahomes is also using his legs more often. He has generated 280 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. He is on pace to break his career high of 389 rushing yards, which he set in 2023.

In each of the past six games, Mahomes has spread his passes to at least six different teammates. Part of the reason for Mahomes’ success is that the offensive line has given him plenty of time. On pass attempts of over four seconds in last week’s win over the Commanders, Mahomes completed 8 of 9 passes for 149 yards and 3 touchdowns, according to Next Gen Stats.

“His ability to do it on the move is unique,” Reid said Wednesday of Mahomes. “You see a little bit of that from Josh, too. Pat’s got great vision, and I know [Hall of Famer] Troy Aikman mentioned [that]. He goes, ‘Man, his vision is unbelievable.’ He says [Mahomes] seems to see everything. He’s blessed with that part.”

Bills: Allen certainly hasn’t been at his best this season. The seven-year veteran said in the first half against the Panthers, he was not trusting his feet or eyes enough.

“There’s still the want and the hunger to continue to get better with myself mechanically,” Allen said. “And just making sure I’m doing the right things and trying to find myself and put myself in the best spots possible to deliver the best ball that I can to our receivers to go make plays for us.”

Allen has a 37 Total QBR in three games since Week 5 (26th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks) and has a Total QBR below 55 in three straight games, tied for the second-longest streak of his career and longest since 2019 (five straight).

There’s no doubt he remains one of the league’s best dual-threat quarterbacks. He has his highest completion percentage since 2020 (68%) and has kept the Bills’ offense in games this year.

Allen always seems to rise to the occasion for big games.

What will be the key for each quarterback to win on Sunday?

Chiefs: Limiting negative plays

In last week’s win over the Commanders, the Chiefs had two turnovers on their first two drives. They can not afford to make similar mistakes against the Bills. One reason the Chiefs have played with the lead during much of their three-game winning streak is that they haven’t committed many mistakes, whether it’s Mahomes being sacked, him throwing an interception or one of his teammates committing a penalty.

In last year’s loss to the Bills, Mahomes threw two interceptions, one on the opening drive and the other at the end of the game. If Mahomes has a clean sheet, and spreads the ball to his teammates, the Chiefs should have a chance to score 30 points.

Bills: Josh Allen being Superman

The Bills beat the Panthers almost solely on the strength of Cook and the offensive line, but that game plan is unlikely to work against Kansas City. Instead, Buffalo’s best chance of success is Allen having a signature standout performance in a big game, along with Cook’s brilliance on the ground.

The question this time is whether the defense is healthy enough to assist Allen and if he has the receivers to get the job done.