You might be feeling stressed out seeing the headlines about “super flu” and comparing the current winter health challenges with 2020 and Covid. Amid all the noise, it’s difficult to know how bad this flu really is – and how much is political spin. I should start by saying “super flu” is not a scientific term or one used by any academics or clinicians I work with. It’s a colloquial phrase that’s been used by various NHS England bosses and taken up by Wes Streeting, the health secretary, and Keir Starmer.

This year, a couple of factors have come together to make it a harder flu season for hospitals to manage. First, flu has arrived earlier than previous years. This isn’t unique to the UK: it’s the same picture across the US, Canada, Japan, Germany – basically the northern hemisphere going into winter. This is in the context of multiple viruses circulating such as Covid and rhinoviruses, which means patients could be fighting one or more viruses at the same time and are more susceptible to getting sicker from influenza.

The current level of hospitalisations usually occurs in January, but it’s happening a month earlier. According to recent NHS England data, flu-related hospital admissions have risen sharply in December 2025, with figures showing an average of around 2,660 flu patients in hospital per day, the highest level recorded for this time of year, and a 55% rise in admissions in just one week. A&E attendances for flu and respiratory illness overall have also reached record levels, compounding pressure on emergency services.

When we refer to seasonal flu, the predominant circulating strains are H1N1 and H3N2 (both influenza A) and influenza B. All three are included in this year’s influenza vaccine. H3N2 is more severe as a “flu” than the other strains, especially among those who are elderly or young children. This winter, a new variant of H3N2 has emerged, called K. This strain emerged (through mutation) too late to be included in the update for this year’s seasonal vaccine. This means that the vaccine offers less-than-ideal protection. This is not unusual for seasonal flu vaccines, given how quickly the influenza virus mutates.

Does this mean this year’s flu vaccine doesn’t work? No, not at all. While not perfect, it still offers partial protection against H3N2, and against the two other strains circulating. Real-world vaccine effectiveness data from the UK Health Security Agency shows that even with the subclade K H3N2 dominating cases, the 2025–26 seasonal vaccine still provides typical protection: around 72–75% effectiveness against emergency department attendance and hospital admission in children and adolescents, and 32–39% effectiveness in adults. That means vaccinated people are significantly less likely to be hospitalised compared with unvaccinated people, even if infection isn’t completely prevented.

But there’s another problem this winter in the UK: both the take-up and the provision of the flu vaccine. Among those at-risk groups covered by the NHS, data from last year indicates around only 40% of people under 65 in clinical risk groups and roughly 42.6% of two- to three-year-olds were vaccinated, while uptake in those aged 65 or over was higher at around 74.9%. We, the public health community, haven’t done a good enough job explaining to people how serious a disease flu can be and the benefits of vaccination, or making it easy to get jabbed.

But what about if you’re not in an NHS-covered group, and just don’t want to get severely ill with flu this year? Unfortunately, the UK currently has vaccine shortages in the private market, meaning many pharmacies have low or no stock. It’s a bizarre situation. The cost to get vaccinated (prevention) falls on individuals who need to take time off from work, potentially visit multiple pharmacies to find a jab, and pay £18-20. This is time and money that many people would struggle to find, given other pressing demands.

But if someone goes unvaccinated and is admitted to hospital, the cost falls on the NHS and taxpayers into tens of thousands of pounds for admissions, plus adds to the huge patient load. These are the opposite incentives to what we should have for individuals.

Coming to hospitals, the UK government is correct in saying that they are in a critical state, but this is because there is little surge capacity. As one clinician told me: “Both primary care and secondary care run close to or at capacity all the time, so any increase in illness tips the system over capacity and into ‘crisis’.” Hospital bosses are worried because if December already looks this bad (like a typical January would), what will January and February be like? The million-dollar question is: have we hit the peak already for flu (and just had an earlier season), or is the entire baseline going to be higher for the coming months, which would be very worrying? I don’t think anyone knows the answer.

I do worry that we need to be careful of crying wolf, and calling it “super flu”. This is not a novel pathogen (like SARS-CoV-2) which made many people critically ill, and where we had no vaccine, no diagnostics and no treatments, plus no prior immunity in the global population. Overstating also carries that risk that if we do get a step-change in a virus – like H5N1 avian flu – causing human-to-human transmission with a high fatality rate, that people are desensitised to public health information. Covid was a once-in-a-century pandemic. I don’t think you can compare what’s happening now to that at all.

The NHS is struggling and in crisis, but not because of a “super flu”. It is struggling because flu season has come early, vaccines are offering partial protection from a mutated circulating strain, there has been poor take-up and inaccessibility of the seasonal flu vaccine, and it is a health service that hits a critical state every single winter. As a final aside, is it too late to get vaccinated? Not at all – I’d strongly encourage you to find a local pharmacy with stock and get protected going into the festive period.

• Prof Devi Sridhar is chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh

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