Software giant Adobe predicts U.S. online sales during the holiday 2025 stretch will increase 5.3 percent to $253.4 billion, representing some slowing in digital sales growth.

For the holiday 2024 season, online sales in U.S. grew 8.7 percent to $241.4 billion, according to Adobe. 

Adobe’s projections cover the Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025 period and are based on analyzing direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million stock keeping units and 18 product categories.

Those categories combined will represent 53.7 percent of the online spend this holiday season with electronics totaling $57.5 billion, up 4 percent; apparel totaling $47.6 billion, up 4.4 percent, and furniture reaching $31.1 billion, up 6.5 percent. Grocery sales will hit $23.5 billion, up 9.2 percent and cosmetics will reach $8.4 billion, up 9.1 percent.

While online sales for holiday are seen growing midsingle digits, overall holiday sales — digital and brick-and-mortar store sales combined — are seen growing just low-single digits. As the year has progressed, industry experts have been getting increasingly more cautious and conservative in their expectations for holiday sales gains. Concerns center around rising prices from tariffs and general inflation, declining consumer confidence, economic uncertainties and potential stockouts.

In addition, holiday shopping began as early as July for some consumers, who were looking to avoid higher prices and shortages on retail shelves later in the year, inevitably depleting the sales tally for the traditional November through December holiday period. There should be a pick-up in purchasing this month with Amazon’s “Prime” sale happening Tuesday and Wednesday, and Walmart, Target and Costco launching their own sales this week to compete. That will further snatch sales from November and December.

The London Stock Exchange Group said that, every year, retailers ride the coattails of Amazon’s Prime Days. “This Prime Week it’s highly likely that retailers are banking on aggressive promotions to encourage spending, especially as shoppers continue to prioritize value,” LSEG reported on Monday. “With consumers more price-sensitive than ever, online price comparisons will be a key part of their shopping behavior. Other retailers are aiming to capitalize on this trend by offering steep discounts to stay competitive.”

Among the shopping trends that are getting stronger this year, Adobe pointed to the increased use of AI by retailers to help consumers discover products and expedite purchasing, and that purchases attributed to social traffic should rise by 51 percent year-over-year, compared to just a 5 percent gain in the 2024 season.

Vivek Pandya, lead insights analyst for Adobe, told WWD, “We’re coming into the first really major year where consumers will be able to do a lot of ideation with these generative AI platforms. They’ll lean on them to get a better sense of prices and deals, who’s offering free shipping or not, and to get their Christmas lists together. This is going to be a nice tailwind. They’re looking at the social conversation. They’re looking at what’s being said on things like Reddit about different products. We see that play in a major way for the first time this holiday season. It’s going to be a much more comfortable experience for the consumer [with] much more awareness and utilization around generative AI platforms.” It’s helping consumers be “strategic” in their purchasing, he said, which suggests spending less.

In other key trends cited by Adobe: