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At last month’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) summit, China and the bloc upgraded their free trade pact in the areas of environmental protection, product quality and support for small businesses.

Premier Li Qiang contextualised the agreement in light of “greater development challenges” facing Asean nations, as they are “unfairly subjected to steep tariffs”, an indirect criticism of the erratic measures unleashed across the region by US President Donald Trump.

Another noteworthy moment at the summit was the formal accession of East Timor, a prominent economic and trade partner of China, Indonesia and Singapore.

On the surface, Sino-Asean relations have never looked more promising. Asean has been China’s primary trading partner since 2020, with bilateral trade surging from US$160 billion in 2006 to almost US$1 trillion in 2024. Chinese investments in infrastructure – from railways to ports and gas pipelines to energy grids – have played an instrumental role across both the continental Asean states of Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos as well as maritime nations such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

On the streets of Thailand, one could easily find a BYD model. The Chinese electric vehicle (EV) company opened its first factory outside China in the Southeast Asian country. The SAIC Motor-CP partnership also speaks to the depth and pace of supply chain integration between the two economies.

However, the reality is more complex. When I speak to policymakers, business elites and young students in Asean countries, the rise of China comes across as a double-edged sword.



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