Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe imported substantial amounts of Russian crude. While China has been the top individual purchaser since 2017, the European Union as a whole remained Russia’s largest market. However, no single EU member individually exceeded Beijing’s imports.

Following Western sanctions on Russia, Moscow redirected its oil exports eastward. As a result, by 2025, China accounted for around 47 per cent of Russia’s crude oil shipments, followed by India with 38 per cent. It is no secret that Beijing and New Delhi are benefiting from discounted Russian oil imports.

Nevertheless, China and India do not seem willing to put all their eggs in one basket and risk the repercussions of Trump’s secondary sanctions. US unilateral sanctions have a global reach that effectively isolates companies from international finance and trade.

It is, therefore, no surprise that Chinese state-owned corporations have reportedly suspended purchases of Russian oil, while Indian refiners are preparing to sharply reduce imports. That, however, does not necessarily mean that Beijing and New Delhi plan to completely end energy cooperation with Moscow. Such a move would severely impact their economies.