Opinion | Nato must answer Russian air provocations with action, not ambiguity

There is a taxonomy of weakness. At the bottom lies bad policy and worse rhetoric. Above that sits a particular kind of failure that is quietly corrosive: the proclamation of a “red line” that is never enforced. That is what we are now witnessing in Europe.

The facts are plain. In one recent Russian assault, Poland shot down 19 objects that penetrated its airspace in one night. Days later, three Russian MiG-31s loitered in Estonian airspace. Drones have flown over Danish military bases, incursion alarms have shut down airports in Denmark and recent drone activity forced Munich Airport to suspend operations temporarily.

Asked about the drones at the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, Putin mockingly said, “OK, I won’t do it any more.” But these are all calibrated tests of will. A fighter that lingers where it has no right to be must be shot down – after warnings.

Russia’s incremental pattern is not novel: Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, Donbas in 2022. Aggression does not so much explode as seep, and President Vladimir Putin doesn’t advance because he is endowed with irresistible strength. He advances because he calculates Western weakness.

The means are not in question. After the drone swarm in Poland, Nato launched Eastern Sentry, deploying allied jets to reinforce air policing from the North Sea to the Black Sea. The EU will develop a “drone wall” along the eastern frontier. For the first time, all North Atlantic Treaty Organisation members will meet the 2 per cent defence spending target. Collectively, European Nato states and Canada will spend more than US$600 billion on defence this year – nearly four times Russia’s war budget.

But will Europeans act? That is less certain. On Nato’s eastern flank, Poland and the Baltics demand that intrusions be met with lethal force. Still, in western Europe, hesitation lingers. Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has warned against falling for Moscow’s “provocations”. For all the budget increases, political will is uneven. The likeliest outcome is continued ambiguity.

Poland shoots down Russian drones

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