Two years after the Hamas atrocities of 7 October 2023, in which militants killed about 1,200 Israelis, and amid the genocide in Gaza, in which Israel has killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, the need for peace has never been more urgent. Palestinians are desperate for an end to starvation and airstrikes. Israelis want the war to end for the sake of remaining hostages and soldiers. Violence has reverberated across the region. Momentum has been growing around Donald Trump’s proposal, with both Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas grudgingly indicating acceptance under US threat.

With indirect talks between Israel and Hamas beginning in Egypt on Monday afternoon, there are frail hopes of progress at last. Yet both parties have made it clear that they reject major parts of the 20-point US plan, which begins with an immediate ceasefire, the return of all hostages – followed by the release of Palestinian prisoners – and the resumption of full aid.

For Netanyahu, perpetual war in Gaza and beyond extends his political survival. His far-right coalition partners want to expel Palestinians and settle Gaza. Hamas has no desire to sign itself out of existence, and handing back the last hostages would remove any leverage it retains. It has seen much of its leadership destroyed, as well as life in Gaza – but has also watched international public opinion shift unprecedentedly towards support for Palestinians, pulling governments in its wake. It can recruit from a huge pool of angry and traumatised young men.

The full peace plan is still more contentious. Pledges of broad support from governments in the region and in Europe do not mean that they think it feasible – still less that they want to commit troops to an “international stabilisation force”. But some hope that a more plausible and just way forward might somehow emerge from all this.

True, this proposal is less grotesque than the initial Trumpian vision of a “riviera” built on the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. Palestinians would remain, but would be sidelined, as they were in drawing up the plan. The “board of peace” overseeing Gaza appears to be a colonial administration headed by Mr Trump himself and, disturbingly given his history in the region, Tony Blair.

The plan pays lip service to eventual self-determination and statehood as a mere “aspiration” – not a right – of the Palestinian people, via a path that could not be more vague, conditional or tentative. It states that Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. Mr Netanyahu has already said that the military would stay in most of it and would “forcibly resist” a Palestinian state.

Mr Trump has strong-armed the Israeli prime minister at last, but deadly strikes continue and he, like Joe Biden before him, could have halted the slaughter long ago. Telling the two parties to “move fast” now reflects his short attention span as much as the pressing need for peace. He will surely settle for whatever allows him to claim credit. If Israel does stop, it could resume the offensive at any time – just as it broke the ceasefire early this year.

Any opportunity to end this war of annihilation must be seized. Something better may emerge from this path, if – a huge if – Mr Trump and others apply heavy, sustained pressure to Mr Netanyahu and forge a deal that Arab nations can fully support, ensuring pressure on Hamas. But lasting peace should not and cannot be built upon an abandonment of basic Palestinian rights.

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