The 2025 World Series is set, and it will be a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers.
After the defending champion Dodgers swept the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series, the Blue Jays outlasted the Seattle Mariners in a thrilling American League series.
What carried Toronto and Los Angeles this far — and will it continue to work in the Fall Classic? Which stars will shine brightest? And who else must step up? Our MLB experts are here with your first look at this year’s World Series showdown.
Note: Matchup odds come from Doolittle’s formula using power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula for determining how “hot” or “cold” a team is at any given point; average is 72°.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
For the first time in more than three decades, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the World Series where they will find the well-rested, defending champion Dodgers waiting for them. It’s the third Fall Classic for the Toronto franchise but the first since the Jays won back-to-back titles in 1992 and ’93.
The Expos never won a pennant, so the two Toronto pennants account for all World Series appearances by Canada-based clubs. Game 1 at the Rogers Centre will mark the seventh World Series game played outside of the U.S. border. And, spoiler alert, Canada will be rocking.
There’s a fairly limited history between the teams in terms of regular-season interleague play. The Dodgers hold the all-time edge, 19-11, and the franchises did not meet until June 18, 2002. The Blue Jays won that initial encounter behind a Roy Halladay complete game that featured an interesting pair of leadoff hitters. Hitting first for Toronto in that game, at least at the outset, was Chris Woodward, the Dodgers’ current first-base coach. Leading off for the Dodgers was Dave Roberts, who went 0-for-4 against Halladay.
Before the season, my simulations gave this matchup a 2.28% chance of happening, ranking 13th of 165 matchups that popped up in at least one sim. But because the Jays weren’t forecast as a favorite, and the AL figured to be tightly packed (as turned out to be the case), there were eight other teams that faced the Dodgers more often in the 10,000 simulated seasons, including the Mariners, whom the Jays just vanquished in the ALDS.
It’s a novel Fall Classic matchup featuring teams with old-school traits. For the Dodgers, it has been a joyous leaning on a dominant starting rotation. For Toronto, it’s a throwback offense that features standout batting or, more precisely, all the traits that lead to what passes for a high average in 2025 baseball. All of this makes this first Dodgers-Jays showdown a fascinating clash of teams with contrasting styles of play. The games begin in Toronto on Friday. — Doolittle
Toronto Blue Jays
Odds of winning: 40.4%
Team temperature: 93°
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Blue Jays to the World Series for the first time in three decades?
Jorge Castillo: This one is easy. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the best player in this postseason — and, yes, that includes Shohei Ohtani. Six months after signing the third-largest contract in Major League Baseball history, Guerrero has played the part of superstar in October. He’s slashing an absurd .442/.510/.930. He has three strikeouts all month. His six home runs tied the Blue Jays franchise record for postseason home runs in a career. He has also showcased good defense at first base and smarts on the basepaths.
For a guy who entered October with a downright ugly October history — he slashed .136/.240/.182 without a home run in his first six career playoff games — Guerrero has put his stamp on this postseason to carry Toronto to its first World Series in 32 years. Four wins over the Dodgers, with Guerrero as the centerpiece of the upset, would make this one of the greatest October runs ever.
David Schoenfield: Yes, Jorge is correct: If Guerrero has a big World Series, it will go down as one of the greatest postseason performances of all time. Let’s also give a shoutout to rookie pitcher Trey Yesavage – and to the Blue Jays for having the belief in him to make him their No. 2 starter behind Kevin Gausman at the start of the postseason, even though Yesavage had made just three starts in the regular season.
He pitched 5⅓ hitless innings with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees in the ALDS, pure domination. He got three huge double plays to beat the Mariners in ALCS Game 6. Obviously, the stuff speaks for itself, but the Jays asked a lot from a young pitcher, and he has delivered.
Will it/won’t it continue against the Dodgers?
Castillo: Yes, but in limited doses because the Dodgers will probably pitch around Guerrero whenever possible. Nothing suggests Guerrero is going to slow down when given pitches to hit.
The Dodgers’ starting rotation has been utterly dominant, but Guerrero has hit elite pitching this month. He has hit all kinds of pitching. The pressure will be on the guys hitting behind him — Alejandro Kirk, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement — to make the Dodgers pay when they refuse to engage Guerrero.
Schoenfield: It will be a little more difficult. While the Dodgers, like the Mariners, strike out a lot, they also chase out of the zone far less often than Seattle (third lowest chase rate in the regular season compared to 17th for the Mariners). The scouting reports on Yesavage, which were thin at the start of the playoffs, now have three additional games to consider his tendencies. He was a little lucky to escape those two bases-loaded jams against the Mariners and given that his control can waver — he had three walks in each of his two ALCS starts — he’s going to have to be a little more crisp against the Dodgers.
Vlad Jr. has been scorching hot all month. What should we expect from him in the World Series?
Castillo: See above. More of the same, unless the Dodgers refuse to pitch to him. We saw the Yankees and Mariners occasionally dabble with not attacking Guerrero, but they did not avoid him for the most part. The series could hinge on how that dynamic plays out.
Schoenfield: He’s so locked in right now that you would expect it to continue. On the other hand, this Dodgers rotation has much better swing-and-miss stuff than Seattle’s rotation, which was missing Bryan Woo and featured a subpar Logan Gilbert.
We should also point out that Guerrero hit just 23 home runs in the regular season. Getting the ball in the air, like he’s been able to do in the playoffs, isn’t something he did consistently during the regular season, when he had several homerless dry spells.
Which other player is most crucial to the Blue Jays’ chances of winning a title?
Castillo: The bullpen is the Blue Jays’ weakest link, which makes Louis Varland a significant character in this series. Varland is John Schneider’s most trusted reliever. The right-hander has pitched in 10 of the Blue Jays’ 11 playoff games, often in the biggest spots in the middle innings. He has recorded more than three outs three times.
The Blue Jays could carry up to four left-handed relievers in their bullpen — Mason Fluharty, Brendon Little, Eric Lauer and Justin Bruihl — to counter Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy, but they’ve all struggled in the postseason.
Varland, whose splits during the regular season weren’t all that drastic (a .662 OPS against vs. RHH and a .716 .OPS against vs. LHH) will surely find himself in a huge spot against one of the Dodgers’ left-handed boppers. Jeff Hoffman may be Toronto’s closer, but Varland, acquired at the trade deadline from the Twins, is the team’s best reliever and they need him to secure huge outs.
Schoenfield: At the beginning of the playoffs, we all pointed to Hoffman as a postseason key, but the Blue Jays have played so many blowout games in their two rounds – either winning or losing – that Hoffman hasn’t had any close leads to protect.
The concern was he allowed 15 home runs in the regular season, the second most of any reliever in the majors. He has pitched well in the postseason: 6.1 innings, three hits, one run, nine strikeouts, no home runs. But let’s see what happens when the games are closer.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Odds of winning: 59.6%
Team temperature: 122°
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Dodgers back to the World Series?
Jeff Passan: Their extraordinary starting pitching. In Los Angeles’ 10 games this postseason, its four starters — Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani — have systematically dissected Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Milwaukee’s offenses. In 64.1 innings, they have a 1.40 ERA. It’s not by accident. Batters are hitting .132/.207/.201 against them. They have struck out four times as many as they’ve walked and allowed just two home runs.
Now it’s the Mariners’ turn. Their offense has had moments. They’re capable. But they haven’t seen a rotation like the Dodgers’ yet.
Alden Gonzalez: It is indeed their four starting pitchers, as Jeff noted. But the evolution of a fifth one, Roki Sasaki, has been just as critical. The Dodgers were searching for answers late in games when October arrived, and had it not been for Sasaki recapturing the velocity on his fastball and quickly adapting to a high-leverage bullpen role, they likely would not be here right now. The Dodgers have won nine of their 10 postseason games, and Sasaki has recorded the final out in five of them. In another, the Game 4 clincher in the NLDS, he pitched three perfect innings.
Will it/won’t it continue against the Blue Jays?
Gonzalez: The long layoff could be a boon for Sasaki, who had been in uncharted territory from a workload standpoint. Having essentially six days off means he will face few, if any, restrictions in the World Series. And if his arm is fresh and his command is right, opposing hitters usually don’t have much of a chance against his fastball-splitter combination.
One potential advantage for the Blue Jays, though, is that the book is essentially out on Sasaki by now, and they’ll have a much better feel for how to attack him than the Reds and Phillies, who had little to work with because Sasaki’s stuff was so much better than what he displayed earlier this season. If the Blue Jays can get to him, the Dodgers will be left with few other options late in games.
Passan: Toronto has scored the most runs, hit the most home runs and struck out at the lowest rate of any team this postseason. If any playoff offense can get to the Dodgers, it’s the Blue Jays’ offense. This series will be the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.
Dodgers pitchers average 96.8 mph on their fastballs. Toronto batters are hitting .292 off 97-mph-plus heaters, and they’ve struck out in just six of the 50 plate appearances that ended with them. Expect even more two-strike spin from the team that averages just 35% fastballs on potential putaway pitches.
All of the Dodgers’ starters have at least four pitches — Yamamoto throws six and Ohtani seven — a buffet unfortunate to hitters. If Toronto can’t get to them, we’re looking at one of the greatest postseasons ever, like the 1983 Orioles but sustained over an even longer stretch.
It has been a mixed postseason for Shohei Ohtani. What should we expect to see from him in the World Series?
Gonzalez: When Ohtani gets going offensively — and if his performance in the pennant clincher wasn’t evidence of him getting back on track, I don’t know what is — he tends to carry it for a while. His career numbers against Blue Jays starters Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer are not great (6-for-31 with 14 strikeouts and zero walks), and a long layoff normally is not a good thing for hitters.
Any concern about how the time off between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series might negatively impact Ohtani’s offense should easily be made up by how it could positively impact his pitching. Ohtani’s six scoreless innings in NLCS Game 4 came on 12 days’ rest; his five no-hit innings against the Phillies on Sept. 16 came on 11 days’ rest.
Passan: It’s fair to say that one can expect he won’t match Game 4 of the NLCS, one of the greatest individual performances in baseball history. But Ohtani will get at least one start in the World Series, giving him the opportunity to at least recreate some portion of his piece de resistance.
And at this point, anyone who doubts Ohtani’s ability to do anything simply hasn’t been paying attention. The reason there was such surprise at his struggles is because they’re such an unfamiliar sight. And the unfamiliarity comes from the rarity. If any of what he found at the plate in Game 4 carries over, expect fireworks.
Which other player is most crucial to the Dodgers’ chances of going back to back?
Gonzalez: Starting pitching will continue to lead the way for the Dodgers, but they combined to slash just .223/.313/.364 as an offense over the last two rounds. They know they have to do better if they’re going to repeat as champions. And Freddie Freeman in particular will be key.
The Mariners’ rotation is all right-handed, which means Freeman will hit in the No. 3 spot of the Dodgers’ lineup, directly behind Ohtani and Mookie Betts. When the Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees in last year’s World Series, it was Freeman who won MVP. But he’s slashing just .231/.333/.410 in these playoffs, and though he hit better against the Brewers, the Dodgers would love to see more power out of him on the biggest stage. He should be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities.
Passan: No pitcher has been better than Blake Snell this season, and with him lined up to get the ball in Game 1 — same as he did in the wild card series and NLCS — Snell will get to set the tone of the series and then be in line to pitch a potential clincher. In 21 innings, Snell has allowed 11 baserunners and struck out 28. He hasn’t yielded a home run.
He has been the personification of who the Dodgers hoped they were getting when they signed him last winter to a five-year, $182.5 million contract. If he replicates his performances over the first three rounds of the postseason, the Dodgers won’t need much offensive support to back him up, and Snell will get to celebrate his first championship.
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